Why Palantir's Valuation Concerns Investors
Before examining alternatives, it’s important to understand why even bulls acknowledge Palantir’s valuation poses significant risk.
The company trades at 115 times sales, making it more than twice as expensive as the next closest S&P 500 stock, which is AppLovin at 44 times sales. This extreme premium leaves virtually no room for disappointment.
Palantir’s median Wall Street analyst price target sits around $200 per share – only about 6% above current levels. More tellingly, most analysts maintain either hold or sell ratings on the stock, indicating limited confidence it can move significantly higher from here.
RBC Capital analyst Rishi Jaluria has set a price target of just $50 per share, implying potential downside of 50% or more from current levels. While this represents an extreme bearish view, it illustrates the risk that any negative catalyst could trigger a severe correction.
Palantir focuses primarily on one area of AI – software. Google parent Alphabet covers nearly every base in the AI ecosystem, from infrastructure to models to applications. This comprehensive approach provides significant advantages heading into 2026.
Google Cloud's Dominance Among AI Startups
Alphabet’s Google Cloud is the fastest-growing of the “big three” cloud service providers, and it’s become the top choice for AI startups. Nearly all AI “unicorns” – startups valued at $1 billion or more – use Google Cloud for their infrastructure needs.
This positioning is critical because today’s AI startups could become tomorrow’s tech giants. By owning their infrastructure relationships early, Google Cloud creates sticky, long-term revenue streams.
Gemini 3.0 Pro Leads LLM Rankings
Google’s Gemini 3.0 Pro currently ranks as the top large language model available, according to LMArena’s Leaderboard. This technical leadership matters because it demonstrates Google can compete at the highest levels of AI model development.
The company’s AI model superiority extends beyond just rankings. Major customers are choosing Google’s technology for critical applications:
- Apple used Google’s Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) to train the AI models powering Apple Intelligence
- AI leader Anthropic uses TPUs rather than GPUs to keep costs lower
- Meta Platforms is reportedly in discussions with Google about using TPUs in its data centers
Why Alphabet Is the Better Pick
Alphabet trades at a fraction of Palantir’s valuation despite comparable or better growth prospects. The company’s diverse revenue streams from search, YouTube, cloud, and AI provide stability that pure-play software companies lack.
For investors seeking AI exposure without Palantir’s extreme valuation risk, Alphabet offers compelling combination of technical leadership, customer momentum, and reasonable pricing.
Nvidia might seem like the obvious comparison to Palantir given both companies’ central roles in AI infrastructure. What’s surprising is how similar their growth rates are – yet how dramatically different their valuations.
Nearly Identical Growth Rates
Palantir reported 63% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3 2025. Nvidia’s revenue grew 62% year-over-year in the same quarter. The growth rates are essentially identical.
Quarter-over-quarter comparisons actually favor Nvidia. The GPU maker’s Q3 revenue increased 22% sequentially, compared to 18% for Palantir. Nvidia’s Q4 guidance projects 14% sequential growth versus Palantir’s expected 12.5%.
Despite these similar or superior growth metrics, Nvidia trades at dramatically lower valuations across virtually every metric. The GPU leader’s forward P/E ratio of 47 times earnings looks cheap compared to Palantir’s 615 times earnings.
The Full-Stack Advantage
Nvidia’s dominance extends beyond just GPUs. The company has built a complete AI infrastructure stack that competitors struggle to replicate:
Hardware Leadership: Nvidia’s GPUs remain the most powerful chips for AI training and inference, commanding over 90% market share in data center GPUs.
CUDA Software Platform: Two decades of development have created an unparalleled ecosystem of code libraries, pre-trained models, and developer tools. This software moat is arguably more valuable than Nvidia’s hardware lead.
Complete Data Centers: Nvidia pairs best-in-class GPUs with CPUs, high-speed interconnects, and networking platforms, essentially building entire data centers rather than just selling individual components.
Growth Runway Remains Massive
Wall Street analysts estimate Nvidia’s adjusted earnings will increase at 48% annually through fiscal year 2028. That makes the current valuation of 47 times earnings look reasonable for a company with such powerful secular tailwinds.
The data center GPU market where Nvidia dominates is projected to grow at 36% annually through 2033. While competitors like AMD and custom chips from Broadcom pose threats, Nvidia’s full-stack strategy and CUDA ecosystem create formidable barriers to switching.
Among 69 Wall Street analysts covering Nvidia, the median price target of $250 per share implies 31% upside from current levels around $190. This positive outlook from professional investors contrasts sharply with skepticism surrounding Palantir’s valuation.
Micron Technology: The Memory Oligarchy
Micron Technology represents perhaps the most underappreciated component of the AI infrastructure stack. The company belongs to what some analysts call the “memory oligarchy” – only three companies in the world supply high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used in AI chips.
Why Memory Matters for AI
Palantir’s AI software wouldn’t be able to run without powerful chips. Those chips wouldn’t be able to function without high-bandwidth, low-latency memory. In some sense, Micron is therefore more foundational to AI than Palantir’s software layer.
Every GPU that Nvidia sells for AI training and inference requires HBM to function effectively. As AI model sizes grow exponentially, memory bandwidth becomes an increasingly critical bottleneck. Micron is one of only three companies globally that can solve this problem.
The Only U.S. HBM Supplier
Micron stands out as the only HBM manufacturer based in the United States. Given increasing focus on supply chain security and domestic production capabilities, this geographic advantage could prove valuable for customers prioritizing reduced geopolitical risk.
The company’s revenue growth has accelerated as AI infrastructure spending has ramped up globally. While Micron’s stock price is more volatile than Palantir’s due to the cyclical nature of the memory business, the company’s positioning in AI infrastructure is undeniable.
Valuation Advantage
Micron trades at far more reasonable valuations than Palantir despite serving an equally critical role in AI infrastructure. For investors seeking exposure to AI’s growth while avoiding extreme valuation premiums, Micron deserves serious consideration.
The Risk-Reward Calculation
All three alternatives – Alphabet, Nvidia, and Micron – offer better risk-reward profiles than Palantir heading into 2026 for several reasons:
Lower Valuations: None approach Palantir’s extreme 115x sales multiple, providing margin of safety if growth disappoints.
Diversification: Alphabet and Nvidia have multiple revenue streams beyond AI, reducing dependence on a single technology trend.
Analyst Support: Wall Street maintains more bullish stances on these alternatives than on Palantir, where most analysts recommend holding or selling.
Growth Sustainability: Questions about whether Palantir can maintain 60%+ growth don’t apply as strongly to Nvidia (backed by enormous data center capex) or Alphabet (with structural advantages in cloud and search).
What Could Go Wrong
Despite their advantages, these three alternatives carry risks:
Nvidia faces potential competitive threats from AMD, custom chips, and slowing data center capex if AI enthusiasm wanes.
Alphabet continues facing regulatory scrutiny and questions about whether its AI investments will generate appropriate returns.
Micron operates in a notoriously cyclical industry where memory prices can collapse when supply exceeds demand.
However, these risks appear more manageable than Palantir’s primary risk – that its valuation simply cannot be sustained if growth decelerates even modestly.
The Bottom Line
Palantir’s remarkable performance since 2024 has made early investors wealthy. However, at current valuations approaching 615 times earnings and 115 times sales, the stock offers unfavorable risk-reward for new investors.
Alphabet, Nvidia, and Micron provide alternative ways to gain AI exposure without paying Palantir’s extreme premium. All three companies play critical infrastructure roles in AI’s growth, trade at more reasonable valuations, and have Wall Street analyst support that Palantir lacks.
For investors looking to position portfolios for AI’s continued expansion in 2026, these three stocks offer compelling alternatives to chasing Palantir’s momentum at nosebleed valuations.